That was really interesting. Thank you.
I tried to be, as you say, as impartial as possible whilst reading the elements of the evidence you recounted (recognizing that there will be potentially crucial elements missing). For example, I don't find all five versions of events from the complainant to be as starkly different as you imply. I do note that they seem to escalate, but equally they may just contain more detail as she got over her shock. The only version that sticks out for me is the inclusion of the defendant's masturbating in the shower. Irresepective of shock, that behaviour is so at odds with the other stories (and so germane to a subsequent claim of rape) that I'm surprised that it only appeared in the one version. All the other versions seem to be broadly in line with each other.
When I got to the bit where you revealed the verdict I found myself in agreement.
I hope that the lack of corroborating physical evidence was the main driver behind my expecting the not guily verdict. However, and this may be a reflection of my biases, the aggressively racist text from the ex-boyfriend to the defendant also really stuck out as making his influence on the complainant (and his cop buddy) of significant concern to the integrity of the case.
It seems to me that the named complainant was not the actual complainant, the ex-boyfriend was. If I were to guess, I'd say that the claim about the defendant masturbating in the shower was included in one of the statements where the ex-boyfriend was supplying detail.
Was anything done about the fact that the officer receiving the complaint was a friend of the complainant's ex-boyfriend? If he went on to be involved in the taking of the initial complaint, he would probably be less inclined to intervene when the ex-boyfriend was prompting and/or less likely to notice where it was additional to the complainant's recollection of events.